Maria Imran 
Oil prices remain highly volatile as the conflict involving Iran and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continue to drive supply shocks. Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate have repeatedly moved above $100 a barrel, peaking near $119 to $120 during acute escalation before easing on ceasefire or diplomatic signals.
Oil Prices Stay Volatile as Hormuz Risks Persist
The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG trade, so blockades and transit risks have stranded millions of barrels of daily exports. The International Energy Agency and member nations have responded with large emergency releases from strategic reserves to cushion the shortfall.
Refined Products and Economic Spillovers
Crude prices have fluctuated in Pakistan, but refined products have faced sharper imbalances, and aviation kerosene has surged, while diesel costs have climbed far more than standard petrol.
The geopolitical risk premium has added an estimated $20 to $25 a barrel over pre-war averages, and more during peak crises. That premium has raised shipping and insurance costs and fed stagflationary pressure across importing economies. Pakistan has been following these shifts closely, as shown in Can Iranian Oil Reduce Fuel Prices in Pakistan? Economic Benefits, Challenges and Key Questions Answered.
Outlook and the Case for Energy Resilience
Analysts from Goldman Sachs and S&P Global warn that crude could stay elevated, or average around $125 a barrel, if Gulf production remains severely depressed through 2027. Base-case projections still assume a gradual return to normal conditions.
For an importing economy such as Pakistan, the outlook strengthens the case for diversified supply, healthy reserves and steady diplomacy that supports regional calm. Pakistan’s consistent call for de-escalation in the Middle East is directly linked to its own energy and price stability.
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