Sana Khalid 
Pakistan Monsoon Crisis underscores that Pakistan is home to some of the worst climate change impacts. Despite contributing to less than 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions, Pakistan is still one of the worst hit by climate change. Floods, heatwaves, and more – now the weather is causing predictable and costly consequences.
But, among these risks, Pakistan is also raising awareness and steadily institutionalising to become more resilient – giving hope for a better tomorrow.
A New Normal: Unpredictable Monsoons
The last decade has brought about a shift in Pakistan’s monsoon patterns. The weather is no longer predictable, year-to-year, and has grown more extreme.
Heavier And Irregular Rainfall
New research reveals that monsoon rains have increased 15-50% with global warming. Many areas are now alternating between parched conditions and downpours.
Deadly Cloudbursts Are On The Rise.
Montane areas are increasingly experiencing short but heavy rainfall events (more than 10 cm of rain per hour) called cloudbursts. These lead to flash flooding and landslides, threatening people’s lives.
Glacial Threats In The North
Pakistan has more than 7,000 glaciers in the Himalayas, Karakoram and Hindu Kush mountain ranges. Accelerated melt will lead to greater risks of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), which can suddenly release torrents of water.
Forecast Floods: The Need for Preparation
Fire, water and the weather are inevitable, but many of the consequences can be traced back to system problems.
Urban Flooding And Poor Planning
Flooding in large cities such as Karachi and Lahore is often caused by:
- Blocked drainage systems
- Unauthorised building on floodplains
- Unplanned urbanisation
These problems create disasters out of heavy rains.
Environmental Degradation
Cutting down trees and mismanagement of land have destroyed rain absorbers. The lack of vegetation means more soil is eroded, and flood waters flow faster.
Gaps In Early Warning Systems
Programs have been rolled out, but there have been delays in the establishment of early warning systems. Vulnerable populations in rural and remote areas are still at risk due to delays in warnings.
Policy and Investment Challenges
Although the 2022 floods in Pakistan, in which more than 33 million people were affected, have highlighted the need for advanced climate adaptation strategies has been slow.
But organisations such as the National Disaster Management Authority are now more involved. Managing the risk assessment and coordination.
The Human and Economic Impact
These climatic extremes have wide-ranging impacts.
Agricultural Losses
Floods have regularly damaged crops, including significant losses of cotton crops. Thus, impacting farmers’ livelihoods and Pakistan’s exports.
Economic Strain
Billions of rupees have been lost in climate disasters, taking a toll on Pakistan’s economy and growth.
Humanitarian Challenges
Flooding during recent monsoons has caused hundreds of lives to be lost and hundreds of thousands to be displaced. Along with families left homeless, without food and lacking access to medical care.
Positive Change is on the Way
Despite the difficult circumstances, Pakistan is working hard. At the federal and provincial levels, more awareness of the need for a climate-smart Pakistan is emerging.
Improved Forecasting And Awareness
The National Disaster Management Authority has put out warnings ahead of the 2016 monsoon, anticipating rainfall 22-26% higher than normal. Early warning helps to mitigate hazards.
Community-Level Resilience
NGOs, community groups and local initiatives are getting on board to prepare for disaster, paving the way for resilience and awareness at the local level.
International Collaboration
Pakistan is still seeking international partnerships for climate finance and technical assistance, understanding climate change to be a global challenge.
What Needs to Be Done Next
For Pakistan to reduce a “predictable disaster”, it needs to up its game in certain areas:
Climate-Friendly Infrastructure Development
- Improve the urban planning and drains
- Strengthen early warning systems in more remote areas
- Promote forest planting and good land management
- Boost funding for climate adaptation
These measures can help mitigate the impacts of future monsoons.
Looking forward: The turning point
The monsoon in 2026 is likely to be wetter, so this is the time to be prepared for it. The challenges are daunting, but the possibilities are too.
The heightened awareness, reforms and resilience of Pakistan are cause for optimism; mostly, through continued hard work and investment, Pakistan can shift from responding to climate disasters to planning for them.
Monsoons, Unpredictable but damaging, are Pakistan’s Climate
Unpredictable Monsoons, an Increasing Risk
Pakistan is increasingly seeing erratic and extreme monsoon seasons, which are changing the country’s climate. Particularly in recent decades, rainfall patterns are no longer stable, where droughts are followed by heavy rainfall, with 50% more rain in certain parts of the country. This is attributed to global warming and is especially perilous in regions that are already at risk.
In the north, the fast pace of glacial retreat in the Himalaya and Karakoram mountains is compounding the problem. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and cloudbursts (an intense rain shower) are occurring more frequently. These lead to flash flooding and landslides and threaten human lives and property.
Damage is Avoidable (and Foreseeable)
Although extreme weather events are inevitable, many of the problems in Pakistan are a result of poor planning and infrastructure. Floods in urban areas, such as Karachi and Lahore, are caused by clogged drains and illegal urban development, as well as a lack of investment in climate-resilient infrastructure.
Interventions to protect natural defences have fallen short. Clearing forests and improper land use decrease the land’s capacity to retain water, worsening flooding. Meanwhile, the lack of implementation of a timely warning system also means that many people, particularly in rural areas, have little preparation for disasters.
But Pakistan appears to be making headway. The 2022 Pakistan floods have put to the test the effectiveness and resilience. Mostly, policymakers and institutions are adopting a resilient and coordinated approach. Along with a strong focus on climate adaptation.
Through ongoing infrastructure, policy and public awareness initiatives. Pakistan stands the chance of breaking the vicious cycle of anticipated damages. Also, by creating a better tomorrow.
Pakistan faces climate adversity, but it can avoid climate insecurity. By drawing lessons from history and preparing for tomorrow, it is possible to safeguard Pakistan’s population, economy and ecology from climate extremes.
New and unpredictable monsoons may be here to stay, but this doesn’t have to be a disaster.
